The City is undertaking a Population, Housing and Employment Projections Study for the City of Kingston and the Kingston Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). The Kingston CMA includes the City of Kingston and the Townships of South Frontenac, Loyalist and Frontenac Islands. The study is being managed by Planning Services. The City has retained a consultant team led by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd to undertake the study. This work is being done in conjunction with the Employment Lands Review and the Commercial Lands Review. 

Purpose

Population, housing and employment projections provide the foundation for the City's long-range land use, transportation, infrastructure and capital expenditure planning. The projections are completed every five years to recognize new Statistics Canada Census data and to extend the planning horizon. The study was last updated in 2019. This Study identified a range of scenarios, including low, base (medium) and high population, housing and employment forecasts within the Kingston CMA and the City of Kingston in five-year intervals to 2046. The base case growth scenario was recommended as the preferred growth scenario. 

Public Engagement

Public and stakeholder consultation is an important component of the study update. Residents are invited to an open house on June 19 from 6 to 8 p.m. at Memorial Hall (located inside City Hall), 216 Ontario Street 

There will be a short presentation by the consultants followed by an opportunity for questions and answers. 

Objectives

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. will develop three estimates (low, medium and high) for population, housing and employment growth for the City and the CMA at 5 year intervals from the 2021 census data to the year 2051. 

The main objectives of the Population, Housing and Employment Projections Study are as follows: 

• To forecast the change in institutional population and non-institutional population presented in five-year intervals in the Kingston CMA and the City of Kingston to 2051.  
• To forecast "natural" population growth (births and deaths) in five-year intervals in the Kingston CMA and the City of Kingston to 2051. 
• To forecast the net migration rate in five-year intervals for the Kingston CMA and City of Kingston to 2051. 
• To forecast the anticipated change in household size for the Kingston CMA and City of Kingston to 2051. 
• To estimate the amount (both rental and ownership housing) and type of housing required to accommodate the projected change in population to 2051 for occupied and unoccupied dwelling units.  
• To evaluate and identify trends and future change in the City of Kingston's rental market. 
• To estimate student population change in the City of Kingston based on enrolment growth to local post-secondary institutions and to forecast the impact of change on housing demand to 2051.  
• To forecast the amount and type of employment growth projected in five-year intervals for the Kingston CMA and the City of Kingston to 2051 and to further forecast this growth by various employment sub-sectors. 
• To evaluate employment trends and provide commentary on what key industrial sectors and other priority areas should be the focus for economic development planning.