Frequently Asked QUESTIONS

• Has the City considered "induced demand" in the Third Crossing project?

• What are development charges (DCs)?

• Proposed Third Crossing carbon footprint impacts

• How did the Third Crossing economic impact analysis forecast the number of jobs created?

• How did the economic impact analysis forecast the average wage of these jobs?

Has the City considered ‘induced demand' in the Third Crossing project?

Yes, City staff have considered induced demand (where an increased supply is seen to increase demand) throughout the course of the Third Crossing project. The business plan has determined that even if induced demand occurs it would not be significant enough to deter the benefits the proposed Third Crossing can provide the City. There are two kinds of induced demand the City considered in the scope of the project – local and global induced demand.

Local induced demand

The Third Crossing will create local induced demand for trips across the Cataraqui River between Gore Road and John Counter since there is no bridge there today. The trips the Third Crossing attracts would come from drivers now using the 401, La Salle Causeway and Kingston Mills Road to make trips across the Cataraqui River. 

The creation of local induced demand along the Third Crossing corridor is beneficial for the Kingston's traffic distribution since congestion on the La Salle Causeway will be reduced if the Third Crossing is built. There is also opportunity for drivers taking the 401 or the La Salle Causeway to change their trip route by using the Third Crossing while changing their choice of travel mode to use transit or cycle since a more direct route would be provided with the Third Crossing. This is also beneficial for the City, since the Third Crossing will provide more mode choice for travellers which will help the City reach its mode share targets for transit and active transportation while reducing the number of car trips in Kingston.

Global induced demand

The City needs to continue implementing infrastructure to match growth target projections for Kingston. New growth generates new trips in Kingston's road network. Global induced demand generated by growth should be considered beneficial for Kingston, which is striving to attract more residents and businesses. If the road network is not expanded to keep up with or promote growth, there may be negative impacts like reduced levels of service, increased congestion, increased safety issues, and the potential to miss aspirational growth and mode share targets.

Another type of global induced demand is the potential shifting of trips that have used transit or active transportation back to the car with the expansion of the road network. There is a low potential for this negative type of induced demand to occur as a result of the proposed Third Crossing since most of the new trips generated will be a result of expected growth in Kingston. The City's Transportation Demand Management (TDM) strategy is intended to address any remaining global induced demand concerns through the development of policies, programs and infrastructure that promote the use and attractiveness of alternate (non-automobile) modes of transportation. The Third Crossing's connectivity and multi-use pathway has been identified as a critical TDM component that could help the City reach its mode share goals of increasing walking/cycling and transit use in Kingston.

More detailed information on induced demand can be found in this draft Traffic Report and Cost Benefit Analysis Report.

What are development charges (DCs)?

Municipalities in Ontario use Development Charges (DCs) to recover costs associated with residential and non-residential growth in communities. The City collects DCs to help pay for the cost of infrastructure required to provide municipal services for new development within the community, such as roads, transit, parks and trails, community centres, libraries, fire stations and police facilities. DCs are reviewed every five years and are based on updated growth projections. Find out more information about Development Charges.

How much money has been collected in DCs for the Third Crossing?

DCs are collected in the City by asset categories (i.e roads) and not at the project level (i.e. individual road projects). The Third Crossing has been identified in the City's roads category and DCs have been collected for this project and other road projects since 1999. Applying a proportionate calculation to the Third Crossing, staff project that, to the end of 2016, the total funds collected were approximately $11M. The project, if approved, is expected to begin as early as 2019 and to be completed in 2022/2023 at which time it is estimated that, based on projected growth, funds collected will be approximately $20M. The balance of DCs for the project ($10M) will be collected beyond that timeframe from additional growth and development.

Can DCs collected for road projects be reallocated to fund other municipal projects?

DCs are collected by asset category and funds may be reallocated within a category. The identified road projects are determined at the time of the Development Charges Background Study, which uses information from the City's Transportation Master Plan. Substitution of road projects would require approval of council; they need to be related to new growth and development, and further supported by findings outlined in the City's Transportation Master Plan. 

How did the Third Crossing economic impact analysis forecast the number of jobs created?

As part of the economic impact analysis, interviews were done with developers, commercial real estate agents, City staff and other stakeholders including the Greater Kingston Chamber of Commerce on the potential economic development benefits from the Third Crossing. Key themes from these are below (see full Cost Benefit and Economic Impact Analysis report for more detail):

• The Third Crossing will improve access to the east end and as a result potentially increase the attractiveness of the St. Lawrence Business Park.
• Uptake in the St. Lawrence Business Park has been slower than expected where a lack of access led potential businesses to not consider the St. Lawrence Business Park.
• Stakeholders interviewed agreed that the development of the Third Crossing would help accelerate and facilitate the development of the St. Lawrence Business Park.
• One of the stakeholders interviewed indicated that the Third Crossing would have little impact on the St. Lawrence Business Park.

Based on these interviews, the Third Crossing could facilitate and be a catalyst for the development of the St. Lawrence Business Park. It is important to note that it's development cannot directly attribute all of future economic development of the St. Lawrence Business Park to the Third Crossing.  That being said, the research and analysis suggest the bridge would positively impact the economic development potential of the St. Lawrence Business Park.    

The amount of remaining space of the St. Lawrence Business Park is 15.2 hectares which was used to estimate its economic development potential.  The City's Employment Lands Strategy Review – Final Report (Watson and Associates, March 11, 2015) provided a jobs-per-hectare estimate for all employment lands in Kingston.  Table 13 in the economic impact analysis report references Figure 4-9 from the City's Employment Land Strategy Review Report.

Business park/employment lands and employment densities

The employment density in the St. Lawrence Business Park is currently 26 jobs-per-hectare with an overall City of Kingston average of 18 jobs-per-hectare across all employment lands. For conservative purposes, the economic impact analysis uses a value of 15 jobs-per-hectare which is 17% lower than the City of Kingston average of 18 jobs-per-hectare and 35% lower than the 26 jobs-per-hectare in the St. Lawrence Business Park.  Multiplying 15 jobs-per-hectare by the 15.2 hectares available yields 228 jobs which as shown in the economic impact analysis Table 12.

Average annual ongoing economic impacts to Kingston CMA due to the development of the St. Lawrence Business Park

How did the economic impact analysis forecast the average wage of these jobs? 

Statistics Canada – Average weekly earnings by industry

Data on weekly earning by industry was inflated to 2017 dollars and adjusted to reflect an additional 3% wage premium since wages in Ontario are slightly higher than those across Canada.  Multiplying 228 jobs by an average salary of $80,000 yields a total earnings (i.e., wages and salaries) of approximately $18.2 million.

The indirect impact value of 11 jobs is based off a 5% portion of the 228 job value and the induced value of 37 jobs was based off a 15% portion of the 228 job value. These percentages are appropriate for the City's economic environment and, when totalled, equal a 276 job value overall. Total earnings were then used in conjunction with input-output multipliers to determine a broader set of economic impacts at the direct, indirect and induced levels and for other measures of economic activity (e.g., GDP) to estimate the economic development potential of the St. Lawrence Business Park.